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All Contents © 2018The Kiplinger Washington Editors
By Nicole Duran, Senior Editor
| December 13, 2018
The 2020 Democratic presidential nominating contest is attracting unprecedented interest, as it’s the first in decades to be truly wide open. Although there are more than 40 politicians, businessmen and celebrities weighing a bid, former Vice President Joe Biden is the only one for whom virtually all other candidates would step aside. And this far out, it’s impossible to know whether there’s another Barack Obama hiding in the mix, ready to catch fire and snatch the nomination from the heir apparent.
We’ll rank the top contenders for the Democratic presidential nomination, updating our list as hopefuls drop out and primary season lifts and crushes others. But for now, only 13 stand out enough to rank, which is why the remaining names are listed alphabetically as the countdown to Iowa’s Feb. 3, 2020 caucuses commences.
Doug Jones for Senate Committee via Wikipedia
The former vice president tops most early polls of Democratic voters, but that’s as much a result of being in the public eye for nearly 45 years as it is a measure of true desire to see the 76-year-old former Delaware senator top the ticket two years from now. Biden says his decision, which will come by February, depends on whether he and his family are “ready” for another grueling campaign. But he sure sounds like a candidate, recently saying: “I’m the most qualified person in the country to be president.” Should the Pennsylvania native seek the presidency for the third time, he’d be the clear front-runner.
Many Democrats, particularly Obama loyalists and party veterans, wanted Biden to challenge former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016. He could quickly assemble a top team of consultants and advisers and lock in some of the party’s biggest donors. He’d also have access to Obama’s campaign mailing list and be able to tap the organization that their 2008 and 2012 campaigns built.
For all those reasons, we think he leads the pack at this early stage. Not too far behind Biden is another septuagenarian presidential campaign veteran.
The Vermont lawmaker’s donor and volunteer bases are fresher than Biden’s and haven’t really disbanded since his 2016 loss to Clinton. He remains popular with young voters and the liberal activists seeking to shift the Democratic Party to the left. Sanders inspired many of this year’s first-time candidates to seek office, most of whom embrace his socialist-leaning platform.
One of Sanders’ biggest strengths is that he has proven he can attract the type of voter that shunned Clinton and backed Trump: white working-class men. Overall, 12% of Sanders’ supporters defected to Trump on Election Day. They provided enough votes in key states that, had they voted Democratic or even just stayed home, Clinton would have won.
crockodile via Flickr
The three-term Texas congressman from El Paso didn’t even make our initial list in August. But after his high-profile attempt to unseat GOP Sen. Ted Cruz garnered him national headlines and the adoration of Democrats across the country, the 46-year-old enters at No. 3.
O’Rourke shattered fundraising records in what officially became the most expensive Senate contest ever weeks before Election Day. He raised $38 million in the third quarter, breezing past the old $22 million record ($31 million in today’s dollars) set in 2000. And he did so eschewing corporate and labor political action committee dollars.
He amassed a national donor base and list in under two years and built a loyal army of volunteers from both inside and outside the Lone Star State that would happily help march him to the Democratic nomination. Party honchos have taken note. Some, such as outgoing Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, dismiss him as the flavor of the day: “You don’t promote a loser to the top of the party,” Emanuel recently said of O’Rourke. Others think he’s exactly the kind of fresh face and novel campaigner the party needs. O’Rourke, who gave up his House seat to run for Senate, did lose to Cruz. But, amid record turnout, he came closer to winning a statewide race in Texas than any Democrat in a generation has.
Several of the party’s biggest donors are sold. They have been unwilling to commit to most of the names on this list, preferring to see if one really breaks away from the massive herd, but said they will fund O’Rourke if he throws his hat in the ring.
The Minnesota senator won an open seat in 2006 — a banner year for Democrats — to become the state’s first woman senator. She’s made a name for herself on Capitol Hill as a no-nonsense, pragmatic straight shooter. Her willingness to reach across the aisle, as well as her Midwestern origins, could be big assets if Democrats opt for the centrist route in 2020.
She just won a third term with 60% of the Gopher State’s vote. Many Minnesotans say that even though they are Republicans who usually vote Republican, they support Klobuchar because she is honest, competent and affable. She has a very active political action committee (PAC) and hails from a state that borders Iowa, making testing the waters easier for her than most — which she just did with a Dec. 1 visit to the Hawkeye State.
She hasn’t said whether she’ll run, and she would not immediately be in the top tier if she does. However, we think that if this hard-working lawmaker and former prosecutor enters the fray, it won’t be long before she surpasses several colleagues that most other prognosticators rank higher on their lists today.
Many Democratic operatives believe the road to the White House in 2020 runs through the Midwest. They look at Clinton’s surprise losses in Michigan and Wisconsin, which historically vote Democratic in presidential elections, and her inability to win swing states such as Ohio or Pennsylvania, and believe their nominee must come from the heartland if they are to defeat Trump.
Enter Ohio’s senior senator, Sherrod Brown. The 66-year-old traditional liberal has said he’s not interested, but many believe that after easily surviving what was supposed to be a tough reelection bid, he can be talked into making a run. Brown has been in Washington since 1993, when he was a freshman House member, but it’s hard to paint the earnest, pro-labor, anti–free trade lawmaker as a swamp creature.
The $236,000 that his PAC has doled out to other Democrats this cycle can’t hurt if he changes his mind.
The junior senator from New Jersey has long been pegged as an up-and-comer with presidential potential. He earned a national profile while serving as Newark’s mayor for deeds ranging from saving a freezing dog to rescuing a neighbor from a burning house, sustaining injuries in the process, to shoveling out residents trapped by major snowstorms. During his seven years as mayor, he was featured in two award-winning documentaries. He once challenged an opponent of food stamps to join him in limiting himself to a $30 weekly food budget to prove how meager the benefit is. The 49-year-old Rhodes scholar and former Stanford football player isn’t officially running. But like all other serious potential contenders, he’s helping Democratic candidates. He distributed $402,000 through his PAC as of Nov. 13 — the second most of anyone on this list.
Comparisons to Obama were immediate when Booker came onto the national scene after winning his first mayoral race in 2006. Such comparisons could cut both ways in 2020, when he would also have to decide whether to seek a second term in the Senate.
California Sen. Harris was liberal Democrats’ pet politician before Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez burst onto the national scene in July. However, since the 29-year-old political novice hasn’t even taken her seat in Congress yet and won’t be old enough to run for president in 2020, Harris is still the one atop many progressive Democrats’ wish list of presidential competitors.
A black freshman senator from a populous state captivates politicos with soaring rhetoric, and immediately talk of presidential mettle begins. Sound familiar? International betting parlors like her chances enough to put her just behind O’Rourke (who wasn’t even on those parlors’ boards initially), at 5-to-1. Biden and Sanders, tied at 10-to-1, now trail O’Rourke and Harris. But at this stage, it’s far too early to say whether Harris can break out of the pack and become an Obama-like figure, or if she’ll just be another also-ran, or almost-ran.
Not yet in office two years, with $390,000 she heads the third-most-generous PAC and busied herself last cycle endorsing candidates up and down ballots across the country.
Harris is facing her first real test of whether she’s presidential material. The state of California had to settle a harassment suit brought shortly before she left office against one of her top deputies when she was attorney general for $400,000. He was a California-based senior adviser to her until news of the settlement broke. Critics are accusing Harris, who said that she didn’t know about the payment or complaint, of hypocrisy. She has been a leading advocate of the #MeToo movement. Under pressure, Rep. Elizabeth Esty, D-Conn., forewent reelection this fall after being accused of mishandling a harassment complaint against her then chief of staff by a female staffer.
It is unclear if feminists, and the party, will also push Harris out. More details are sure to emerge that could either allow Harris to weather the controversy or sink her. How she handles the storm will dictate a lot. So far, California’s capital newspaper, the Sacramento Bee, which broke the story, is not impressed. In a recent editorial the paper took her to task for allegedly being unaware of the case. The board also implied that she’s not ready for prime time.
“This is hardly a propitious beginning to a presidential candidacy,” the paper chided.
Warren, like Sanders, is a darling of the party’s progressive wing. The 69-year-old’s fierce criticism of Wall Street and big banks has made her that industry’s No. 1 enemy. Her role in creating the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau — it was the then-Harvard professor’s brainchild — particularly irks the industry.
A shoo-in to her second term as Massachusetts’ senior senator in 2018, she amassed a large campaign war chest that could be transferred to a presidential account if she decides to run. Her PAC is also one of the most active on behalf of other candidates. As of Nov. 13, she had doled out $266,000 this two-year cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.
However, her stock has been dropping since she bungled an announcement that was supposed to put to bed an old controversy about her claims of Native American heritage. Instead, she not only looked foolish, but dishonest. More recently, her hometown paper called on her to stand down. The Boston Globe said that Warren “missed her moment” by not seeking the nomination in 2016. Bookmakers have dropped her odds to 12-to-1.
No sitting mayor has ever been elected president. And one hasn’t topped a major party’s ticket since the War of 1812. That major caveat aside, Los Angeles’ Garcetti has a reasonable shot at the nomination, should he take the plunge. He would be the first presidential nominee of Mexican descent. Given the prominence Trump has brought to the immigration issue, many Latinos hope their community will finally vote at, or near, full strength in 2020. According to the Pew Research Center, not even half of eligible Latino voters went to the polls in 2016. However, Pew’s early estimates for this year paint a very different picture: 11% of Election Day voters were Latinos. They composed 12.8% of the eligible electorate this year.
Garcetti, who is of Mexican, Italian and Jewish descent, says he will make his decision early next year. He’d try to position himself as a candidate who’s above party, someone willing to work with Democrats and Republicans to get things done. In speeches and interviews he focuses on his accomplishments as mayor, stressing that people like him are succeeding at the municipal level on big issues that keep Washington in gridlock.
Coast Guard Photo
The caveat about mayors applies less to Bloomberg, who is probably better known for the media company that bears the billionaire’s name than his 12 years leading the Big Apple. The Republican-turned-independent-turned-Democrat shelled out at least $112 million last cycle to help Democratic candidates across the country. He ends 2018 as the biggest non-party backer of Democratic House candidates.
Bloomberg is making the talk-show rounds and visiting early-voting states as he decides whether he’ll go for it this time (he’s flirted with running before). He says he’d chart a “middle-of-the-road strategy.” He’s previewed some of his top issues with his significant donations to groups advocating for gun control and tougher environmental standards. He could quickly turn the sophisticated political operation he assembled to run his PACs into a presidential committee. That, and his $51 billion fortune, would make him a formidable early-stage candidate.
Courtesy National Park Service via Wikimedia Commons
Montana’s Bullock is another potential candidate with the kind of profile that many strategists believe a Democrat needs to win in 2020. He’s a noncoastal moderate who secured reelection while Trump cruised to victory in his state in 2016. (Big Sky Country does have a propensity for choosing moderate Democrats for governor and the U.S. Senate, however.) As chairman of the bipartisan National Governors Association, Bullock’s national profile is on the rise. Throw in a lawsuit against the Trump administration — Montana is trying to prevent the IRS from dropping a disclosure rule relating to politically active nonprofits — and his name is sure to make the headlines.
He’s testing the waters. He’s visited Iowa a handful of times already, including hitting the state fair — a can’t-miss event for anyone serious about running for president. He also made his way to New Hampshire over the summer. Such heavy travel to the first two states on the presidential nominating calendar doesn’t go unnoticed.
The two-term Colorado governor is weighing a presidential bid. He too has traveled to Iowa and New Hampshire. If he decides to go for it, the one-time Denver mayor’s initial strengths will be having twice won statewide in a “purple” state and being a moderate who doesn’t hail from the coasts or a traditionally Democratic state.
Courtesy U.S. Department of Labor via Wikimedia Commons
Maryland Rep. Delaney was the first Democrat to file presidential candidate papers, but he has a long road before becoming the first House member to jump from the lower chamber to the White House since Gerald Ford — who was never actually elected president (or vice president, for that matter).
But if he falls short, it won’t be for a lack of effort. The three-term congressman believes his doggedness will pay off. He’s been to Iowa 20 times — hitting all 99 counties already — and New Hampshire a dozen since declaring his candidacy in July 2017. He also has field offices and campaign workers in both states. A recent poll showing his name recognition among Hawkeye state Democrats at a whopping 79 percent suggests he’s doing something right.
He’s also willing to put his money where his mouth is. With an estimated net worth of $90 million, he’s one of the wealthiest members of Congress. He self-funded much of his first two campaigns and has already shelled out millions from his own pocket on TV ads in the early-voting states. And unlike many of his eventual rivals, he’s giving up his day job. He did not seek a fourth term in November.
President Obama’s first attorney general is more likely to seek the Democratic nomination than most people on this list. He launched the National Democratic Redistricting Committee in 2017 to fight Republicans’ advantage in redistricting — the decennial process by which all statehouse and U.S. House of Representatives districts are redrawn. In many states, Republicans control the entire process. Both parties, when given the opportunity, draw districts to their advantage, a practice known as gerrymandering.
The NDRC has Obama’s support: The 44th president cut an ad for the political nonprofit as it sought to influence the midterm elections. But Holder’s closeness to Obama, which could be an asset in the primary, could be a liability in the general election.
The two-term Washington governor may lead a state that was considered purple not too long ago, but, with his stances on climate change and immigration alone, a GOP opponent could easily paint the former veteran U.S. House member as a liberal.
As president of the Democratic Governors Association, Inslee crisscrossed the country this year — including stops in Iowa and New Hampshire — to promote his current and would-be colleagues and to talk up his ideas for combatting climate change. Democrats’ gain of seven governors’ mansions on his watch has raised his national profile and earned him bragging rights.
The former Virginia governor’s résumé is second only to Biden’s in terms of breadth. He was instrumental in President Clinton’s 1996 reelection. He was a rainmaker when he led the Democratic National Committee in the early 2000s, catching the party up to the GOP in the money chase. In 2013, he successfully parlayed those behind-the-scenes roles into an electoral career of his own.
His access to the party’s deepest pockets would be a major asset, as would being a former chief executive of a swing state. His ties to the Clintons could cut both ways, however.
Oregon Sen. Merkley said he would decide by year-end. The Beaver State’s junior senator has made a name for himself by forcefully squaring off with Trump over his administration’s controversial policy, now ended, of separating minor children from their illegal immigrant parents at the southern border.
“I have stayed in this conversation because I have been received so well in living rooms and porches here in New Hampshire and Iowa and Nevada and South Carolina,” he recently told a Granite State newspaper. First elected in the 2008 Democratic wave, Merkley would be vying for the support of the party’s progressive wing.
The Connecticut senator who was just easily re-elected doesn’t plan to run, but that hasn’t curbed speculation about his prospects. He’s been an outspoken critic of the gun industry and the National Rifle Association since the 2012 Sandy Hook tragedy rocked the Constitution State and the country. Murphy easily won a second term in November. Nonetheless, his PAC aggressively fund-raised and bestowed donations upon his more vulnerable colleagues.
Along with Biden and Sanders, former Maryland Gov. O’Malley is one of the few on the list who previously sought the Democratic nomination. He couldn’t make headway against Clinton and Sanders while Trump sucked up all the oxygen from both primaries. However, many Democrats think he could’ve beaten Trump. Should Biden decline to run, many of his supporters in Iowa would likely turn to O’Malley.
Ohio Rep. Ryan has already hired Sanders’ 2016 Iowa campaign coordinator. The operative, Pete D’Alessandro, says he joined Ryan’s nascent national political team to pay back the eight-term congressman for supporting D’Alessandro in his unsuccessful bid for the Democratic nomination in Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District.
Like Brown, Ryan would benefit from his Buckeye State origins. He’s talked frequently since the 2016 election about Democrats’ need to reconnect with Rust Belt voters. He’s also talked about the House Democratic Caucus’s need for new leadership. He sought to replace California Rep. Nancy Pelosi as minority leader in 2016, backed by many younger members who are frustrated by the longevity of the caucus’s leadership. He took a shellacking, but his challenge garnered headlines. He says he’s not interested in doing that again next year. Perhaps that’s because he has his eyes on a bigger prize.
White House photo
The longest shots include: Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet. Julian Castro, who was Secretary of Housing and Urban Development under Obama as well as also mayor of San Antonio, Texas. New York Sen. Kristen Gillibrand. Former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz. Billionaire Democratic activist and donor Tom Steyer. California Rep. Eric Swalwell.
“Dream on” candidates: Many Democrats would like to see Michelle Obama run. But her husband’s last days in office couldn’t come fast enough for the former first lady. She’s content speaking out and touring the country promoting her book, causes and candidates.
Americans love the idea of an Oprah Winfrey candidacy, but she has made clear that while she is happy to stump for certain candidates she has no interest in becoming one herself. And finally, the young Democratic voters and activists who are trying to promote Rep.-elect Ocasio-Cortez of New York need to read the Constitution. She won’t be old enough to serve until 2024.
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