Bio David Payne

See All Authors »

David Payne

Staff Economist
The Kiplinger Letter

David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Latest Features

Economic Forecasts
December 2017

Fed Rate Cuts Not Likely Done Yet

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on interest rates

See More From: Economic Forecasts

Economic Forecasts
January 2018

Health Insurance Drives Core Inflation Pickup

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on inflation

See More From: Economic Forecasts

Economic Forecasts
January 2018

Car and Truck Spending Boost August Sales

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on retail sales and consumer spending

See More From: Economic Forecasts

Economic Forecasts
January 2018

Job Gains Slowing Modestly

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on jobs

See More From: Economic Forecasts

Economic Forecasts
January 2018

Consumers Are Propping Up the Economy, Driving GDP Growth

Kiplinger’s latest forecast for the GDP growth rate

See More From: Economic Forecasts

Practical Economics
August 2019

Is a Recession Imminent?

Shoppers will have to carry the load for now because weak business investment shows no sign of perking up anytime soon. Odds are, they’ll be able to.

See More From: Practical Economics

Social Security
July 2019

What Is the Social Security COLA for 2020?

Kiplinger is forecasting a 1.6% cost-of-living adjustment for Social Security recipients next year.

See More From: Social Security

SLIDE SHOW
January 2019

States Most Unprepared for the Next Recession

Most state budgets are in better shape now than they were before the last recession, thanks to steady growth in employment and the resulting rise in tax revenue. Many states have been socking away cash ...

See More From: Economic Forecasts

Economic Forecasts
January 2019

Falling Stocks Can Ding the Economy

Market corrections cause consumers to keep a tighter grip on their wallets

See More From: Economic Forecasts

SLIDE SHOW
August 2018

10 States With the Fastest Rate of Job Growth, 2018

The U.S. economy is humming along nicely. But how long can the good times continue? Widespread growth spells even tighter labor markets, and that could start to crimp regional growth rates. Job openings ...

See More From: Economic Forecasts

SLIDE SHOW
August 2018

Kiplinger's Economic Outlook for All 50 States

America’s economic engine will continue to hum across all major regions throughout 2018. The strongest growth is in the West, with plenty of high-wage jobs being created in tech-related hardware and ...

See More From: Economic Forecasts

Practical Economics
June 2018

Will You Have to Pay More Sales Taxes on Your Online Purchases?

One thing’s for sure: Consumers who live in one of the five states without a sales tax won’t be affected by the Supreme Court’s ruling.

See More From: Practical Economics

Practical Economics
June 2018

3 Factors That Could Drive the Next Recession

The economy is humming along nicely, but how long can the good times continue?

See More From: Practical Economics

SLIDE SHOW
April 2018

Satellite Cities Poised to Thrive in 2018

Job seekers often overlook the small and medium cities located near or in-between the big hubs. These smaller “satellite” cities benefit from expanding regional business growth, while offering lower ...

See More From: Best Cities, States & Places

SLIDE SHOW
March 2017

11 Satellite Cities Poised to Thrive in 2017

It’s been a slow climb back from the Great Recession for the nation’s major metropolitan areas. Yet job seekers often overlook the small and medium cities located near or relatively near the big hubs. ...

See More From: Best Cities, States & Places

Practical Economics
September 2016

A Housing Shortage Looms: Builders Can’t Keep Up

Starter homes especially are becoming scarce.

See More From: Practical Economics

Practical Economics
June 2016

Help Wanted in America: Skilled Workers

In an ever-more-competitive job market, technology increases the need for skilled workers.

See More From: Practical Economics

Show More Stories