Bio David Payne

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David Payne

Staff Economist
The Kiplinger Letter

David is both staff economist and reporter for The Kiplinger Letter, overseeing Kiplinger forecasts for the U.S. and world economies. Previously, he was senior principal economist in the Center for Forecasting and Modeling at IHS/GlobalInsight, and an economist in the Chief Economist's Office of the U.S. Department of Commerce. David has co-written weekly reports on economic conditions since 1992, and has forecasted GDP and its components since 1995, beating the Blue Chip Indicators forecasts two-thirds of the time. David is a Certified Business Economist as recognized by the National Association for Business Economics. He has two master's degrees and is ABD in economics from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill.

Latest Features

Economic Forecasts
January 2018

First Quarter was Bad, Second Quarter Will Be Worse

Kiplinger’s latest forecast for the GDP growth rate

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Economic Forecasts
December 2017

Long Rates Staying Below 1%

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on interest rates

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Economic Forecasts
December 2017

Business Spending Won’t Be Back Anytime Soon

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on business equipment spending

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Economic Forecasts
January 2018

E-Commerce Surges to 18% of Retail Sales

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on retail sales and consumer spending.

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Social Security
May 2020

No Social Security COLA Increase Likely for 2021

Retirees and others should temper hopes of a cost-of-living increase for 2021, and the effect might last even longer.

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Economic Forecasts
January 2018

Inflation to Slow to 0.3% by end 2020

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on inflation

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Economic Forecasts
January 2018

A Silver Lining Among Record Job Loss

Kiplinger’s latest forecast on jobs

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Social Security
April 2020

What Is the Social Security COLA

Social Security benefits get a yearly boost to keep up with the cost of living — except when they don’t.

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SLIDE SHOW
January 2019

States Most Unprepared for the Next Recession

Most state budgets are in better shape now than they were before the last recession, thanks to steady growth in employment and the resulting rise in tax revenue. Many states had been socking away cash ...

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Stocks & Bonds
March 2020

Coronavirus Drugs Already in the Pipeline

It's not just chloroquine. Other existing medicines are being brought to bear against COVID-19. We look at what drugs have promise against COVID-19, and when they will get here.

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SLIDE SHOW
March 2020

Products in Short Supply Due to the Coronavirus

Certain consumer goods are getting scarce, and we don't just mean hand sanitizer and toilet paper. Expect a number of products to be in short supply this spring. Many imports from China didn't make it ...

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Practical Economics
March 2020

U.S. Manufacturing Is Already Ailing from Coronavirus

Supplies are hard to come by, and in the longer-term demand may be at risk.

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Practical Economics
March 2020

Consumers Will Feel Impact of Rapidly Falling Interest Rates

Mortgage and car loans will experience the most significant dips, while some holders of Treasuries may get a slight boost.

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Economic Forecasts
February 2020

How Hard Will Coronavirus Hit U.S., Global Economies?

COVID-19 poses serious risk of economic damage, possibly even a recession, even as its health impacts will be limited.

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SLIDE SHOW
October 2019

States With the Fastest Rates of Job Growth, 2020

U.S. job growth in 2019 is likely to average 170,000 jobs per month, down from 223,000 in 2018. The decline is partly attributable to fewer available workers to hire with the low unemployment rate. Also, ...

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SLIDE SHOW
October 2019

States With the Slowest Rates of Job Growth, 2020

U.S. job growth in 2019 is likely to average 170,000 jobs per month, down from 223,000 in 2018. The decline is partly attributable to fewer available workers to hire with the low unemployment rate. Also, ...

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SLIDE SHOW
October 2019

Kiplinger Economic Outlook for All 50 States 2020

Low jobless rates and rising incomes are helping to fatten state coffers across the U.S. Revenue from sales, personal and corporate taxes is on the rise --the best growth since before the Great Recession. States ...

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